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Issue created by Administrator@rootContributor

Two Important Metrics for Deep Dive: Case Fatality Rate and Case Recovery Rate

Created by: abhilaksh

Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe. The metrics we have presently are great to understand the spread of coronavirus but don't help us understand the stress that's being placed on the medical system.

Describe the solution you'd like In deep dive, we can add two metrics in a day-wise, state-wise manner:

  1. CaseFatality Rate (%)=(Number of deaths due to COVID−19/ Number of confirmed cases of COVID−19)×100
  2. Case Recovery Rate (%)=(Number of cases recovered from COVID−19/ Number of confirmed cases of COVID−19)×100

These are helpful parameters to understand medical system stress because states that have an increase in case recovery rate over time are going to be doing something better, whereas states that have an increase in fatality rate are where more help is going to be needed.

In terms of displaying it in the system, I would recommend two charts in deep dive:

  1. One that plots, with a state-wise filter (with an option for all states selected by default), the number of deaths over time, displayed as percentages of the total confirmed cases on each day.
  2. One that plots, with a state-wise filter (with an option for all states selected by default), the number of recoveries over time, displayed as percentages of the total confirmed cases on each day.

Describe alternatives you've considered Presently, the first chart in Deep Dive (Total Cases) and the Statewise charts on the home page are giving indicators of the case fatality rate and case recovery rate, but they are not expressed in percentages over time, but in count over time.

Counts are notoriously difficult to understand when looking at data statistically. Percentages are much better to understand trends.

As an example to show the issue, consider two populations (let's say of 2 different states): State A has a population of 1,000 people; 300 of these people have the specified disease, 100 of whom die from the disease. In this case, the mortality rate for the disease is 100 ÷ 1,000 = 0.1, or 10 percent. The case fatality rate is 100 ÷ 300 = 0.33, or 33 percent.

State B also has a population of 1,000 people; 50 people have the disease and 40 die from it. Here the mortality rate is 40 ÷ 1,000 = 0.04, or 4 percent; the case fatality rate, however, is 40 ÷ 50 = 0.8, or 80 percent.

The incidence of death from the disease is higher in the first population (more people die in the first population), but the severity of the disease is greater in the second. If we were to only compare the counts of different states, we don't get an accurate picture.

This is also why I would warn against using the total population of a state and/or the country in any metrics like what some of the suggestions have.

Additional context I would recommend calculating and displaying CFR and CRR to 3 decimal places.